Happy holidays, everyone, I hope everyone gets to stay safe and still get to see some loved ones despite what's going on. Today we're gonna do a market breakdown and take a look at what's really happening in the Ottawa market now and in the past, and of course, what we're going to see in the future.

All right, so I'll start off and I'll say a big Merry Christmas to all of you homeowners out there. The average homeowner in Ottawa has gained $117,000 in equity over the past year. And for all of you buyers or want to be homeowners who are cringing listen to that right now. Don't worry, I have some good news for you guys as well.

So first, let's take a look at what's happened in the last 12 months in the market. We usually start with this graphic when we're doing our monthly market update.

So as you can see, this time last year, the average home price in Ottawa was $490,000. And as of November, it was $609,261. Actually, we're going to see that number go up when we get the December stats, you're also going to notice that the return on investment was 23%. If we take a look at the last two years, that would show us the ROI of 40%. But what I want to do is I want to take a look at three years ago, let's look at what the market was doing before the pandemic.

So when looking at the three years, you'll notice that the ROI was actually 65%.

But let's look specifically at January 2019, to March 2020, before the pandemic started, you can see the average price went from $367,625 to $478,765.

So the reason I'm showing you this is to show you that it's not just the pandemic that has caused home prices to come up, we're actually in a major supply shortage before the pandemic even hit. And we are poised to see major increases without the pandemic in place. And I know some of you might be thinking 65% ROI in three years. That's crazy. They can't be sustained. And that is true. It is very high margins right now.

But let's take a look at Ottawa overall over the last 16 years.

When taking a look at the market since January 2005, you'll see that we had an increase of 162%. That's a bit over 10% per year.

So even though today's margins are unprecedented, you'll see the overall market in auto is always going up. Even through the OA crisis, you'll see that prices do fluctuate, they go up and down all the time, but consistently up in Ottawa.

So after taking a look at the past, what does this really mean for a future? I know a lot of you might be thinking, well, obviously, it's going to have to come down with prices that high. But how we predict prices in the future, it's actually all about supply and demand.

So let's take a look at the current market right now. And what we have for supply versus what was selling. So here's a snapshot of the market watch over the last seven days in the market, you'll see that we had 208 listings and 238 sales with another 108 conditional sales.

So that's going to tell us that we're selling more homes than are actually listing. And that might make sense. Because we are in the holiday season people aren't listening to homes. But if you actually look at the homes in the next screenshot, you'll see that half of these listings are actually rentals.

So if you'll see the first 30 new listings that we have this week, you'll see 16 of them are actually rentals.

And that's showing us that we have a lot more home selling that are coming to the market. So how we can calculate the amount of inventories, we look at how many homes sell per month, versus how many are on the market right now.

So if we take a look at just detached homes in Ottawa, you'll see that we have 164 active listings, compared to 254 sales in the last 30 months. That gives us about 20 days of inventory. That means if we weren't going to list any home more homes, we would be completely out of homes in about 20 days.

But what does this really mean? Well, a balanced market should show about six months supply. And a buyers market, when we're the prices will go down, or the market crash where people are waiting for is actually a nine-month supply.

So for that to happen, we're gonna have to go for a current 20 days, up to nine months, we're gonna have to see a lot more homes at the market with a lot less sales happening.

So the next two graphics are going to show you is going to show you the amount of listings that come up every week, and the amount of homes that sell every week. So you're going to notice the blue line says 19, the orange lines 2020.

And the red line is 2021. So if you look at the new listings per week, when you compare 2019 to 2021, which are supposed to be normal years, you'll see that we're about on par for the amount of new listings by week. But when you look at the sold properties, you're gonna see that we're selling significantly more than we were in 2019.

You also notice that while we're selling 200 to 300 homes a week right now, in the heat of the market, we actually sell around seven 800.

So what does this all mean? Well as we know, prices rely on supply and demand, and with low supply, we are only going to see demand go up. We're already seeing bidding wars coming back hard in December, and we expect to see it in the new year unless we see a large amount of inventory come to the market very soon. We are about to see prices spike again.

So if your New Year's resolution is to buy a house, you might want to take a look and get on that sooner than later. Or if you're looking for the opportune time to sell, it is when inventory is at its lowest.

And I want to end with again saying Happy Holidays everyone. I hope you stay safe. And take care.